1/19/2013

The Blue Scare ~vs~ Supply and Demand

  I have been noticing a few trends that are really interesting. Lets for a minute forget the the word "gun" has anything behind it. It is just a category of "widget", specifically we will be looking at gun parts, the kind that you do not need a license to buy. I am gonna put this in a bulleted list :)
  • 7 years of gun part sales happened in 4 weeks around the end of the year.
  • Companies that were literally about to go out of business were saved and restarted their production lines again.
  • There had been a trend of sites like Ebay and Gunbroker getting a premium price for parts over what companies like Midway USA and Cabellas were able to get. Probably because like capitalist circus seals the cheap gun public has been trained to look to Ebay first. Much like the use of Walmart.
  • In the last few weeks demand has gone way up. Guns shops and online retailers have nothing on their shelves. Tumble weeds and blank space is all you will find.
  • Prices have gone up in ways that defy logic. $17 magazines are going for $40 plus. Lower and upper receivers (cheap ones) that were under a $100 a piece are now selling for $500 a piece on Ebay and Gunbroker (when laws permit). And the Online businesses like Midway have nothing available for weeks.
  • The gun community will eat itself in spite of its self. It is a very suspicious and greedy group , why isn't important. But it will gouge until the market has bled dry. Companies like Midway and  Cabellas can not, they have to look more to the future and customer satisfaction surveys :)
  • In 4 weeks, there will be a lot of orders fulfilled on the whole sale level. And this is what I am leading up too. A few things are gonna happen very quickly and might not get noticed.
  1. An online retailer will like be selling product more than %100 cheaper that Eaby and gunbroker style sites. Imagine if your bike shop was cheaper than the internet.
  2. Online stores will likely be bought out by ebayers and the like who will still have a few weeks to make profitability reselling parts purchased at retail. Imagine if someone came into your bike shop and purchased all your parts at retail to sell online.
  3. Then as things equalize , there will likely be a massive sell off because MSRP will become the norm and the ebay types will be back to selling in that price range. How do you adjust for a bubble that only you can see.
  It will be interesting to see this happen because there is a perfect storm brewing that be like nothing else I have seen as an industry dances up close with its online spoilers.

Subscribe to Post Comments [Atom]

0 Comments:

Post a Comment

<< Home